Forecast AI
The intelligence powering predictive performance across the ProfitFirstTM platform.
If you attended the Hunter Conference and would like a copy of Cindy Estis Green’s 2026 Outlook, simply complete the form here to receive a copy of the presentation.
Forecast AI is Kalibri’s proprietary forecasting engine designed specifically for hospitality revenue performance. It produces Kalibri’s annual national forecast and powers predictive components across Hummingbird Commercial and Hummingbird Market— delivering forward-looking insights into occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR.
Built on decades of hotel demand intelligence, Forecast AI combines granular property-level history with forward market signals and machine learning modeling. The result is a modern forecasting methodology that is transparent in approach, rigorous in design, and uniquely built to reflect how demand actually behaves at the hotel and market level.
The Data Components
Forecast AI integrates multiple structured demand and pricing signals that collectively describe both historical performance and future market conditions. These inputs are engineered into predictive features and dynamically weighted across forecast horizons.
NEW Enhancements: Event and Alternative Supply Signals
The most recent addition is the integration of one-time event demand forecasting and alternative lodging (like short term rentals) indicators as additional inputs that may influence performance expectations at a market or submarket level or even for individual hotels.
Property-Level Revenue and Booking History
The foundation of Forecast AI is detailed hotel-level performance history, including:
- Rooms booked by date
- Booking lead time
- Length of stay
- Rate category segmentation
- Channel/source-of-business mix
This enables Forecast AI to model demand behavior at the most fundamental unit of hospitality forecasting: the individual property.
Forward Pricing Intelligence
Forecast AI incorporates forward-looking rate shop data for individual hotels from multiple publicly available booking channels. Future pricing signals are highly predictive of both ADR trajectory and demand elasticity.
On-the-Books Reservation Pace
For some partners, Kalibri integrates on-the-books data, providing real-time visibility into booking pace shifts that may influence near-term forecast accuracy. In testing our models, the data has shown that with the relatively short lead time and high cancellation rates, the impact and value of the on-the-books data is not material, but it is still considered as it may improve outcomes in select markets or timeframes.
Supply Pipeline Forecasting
Forecast AI models new hotel openings as forward competitive impacts — forecasting how incremental supply alters market occupancy and rate dynamics over time.
Macroeconomic Market Drivers
Kalibri integrates forward economic projections including employment, GDP, and market health indicators. These inputs allow for structural adjustments based on long-cycle demand drivers refreshed monthly.
AI Models
Forecast AI is not built on a single algorithm — it is an ensemble forecasting system that blends multiple machine learning architectures depending on forecast horizon and signal type. Kalibri’s modeling framework includes:
- Gradient Boosting Models – Optimized for high-frequency market responsiveness and nonlinear feature interactions
- Additive Time-Series Models – Designed for structural trend modeling and seasonality decomposition
- Exponential Smoothing and Transitional Blending – Provides stability across changing signal dominance.
- Dynamic Model Weighting – Emphasizes different models and signals corresponding to different timeframe components
Forecast AI in Kalibri Products
Hummingbird Commercial
Forecast AI delivers predictive hotel-level performance forecasting with unmatched granularity:
- 18-month forward projections
- daily-level demand forecasting
- rate-category specific outlooks
- forecasts for both the market, submarket, subscribed property and its selected comp set
Forecast AI also underpins the ProfitMixTM model, serving as the predictive base layer for forward strategy decisions around a hotel’s most profitable mix.
Hummingbird Market
Hummingbird Market applies Forecast AI to market-wide forecasting, delivering a forward view of:
- Revenue
- Occupancy
- ADR
- RevPAR
Forecasts are provided at the monthly level across a 12-month horizon, with optional segmentation by rate category and channel.
National Forecast
Kalibri’s annual national forecast is built using a fundamentally different methodology than traditional market forecasters.
Rather than projecting macro performance top-down, Forecast AI generates forecasts bottom-up: starting with thousands of individual hotel-level forecasts and aggregating upward into submarket, market, and national outlooks.
This property-first architecture provides a structurally more defensible national forecast — rooted in real hotel demand behavior, not broad macro assumption layers.
Kalibri is probably the most powerful tool I’ve seen in hospitality sales in the last 10 years. It provides real-time information on what’s happening in the market. It’s a necessity to have this product and work with it weekly.
Arnold Soliman
Using Kalibri has been a game changer for our business. Incredibly easy to use and we can quickly identify real time business opportunities. Strongly recommend to any hotel looking to enhance their performance.
Dan Preston
I love the product. Your customer service is superior, and your data is fantastic.
Kristi Pearce
We’ve uncovered numerous new accounts and leads. And the support and customer service is unparalleled by every individual I have encountered.
Mark George
STR’s [now CoStar’s] data is a mile wide and an inch deep. Kalibri’s data is a mile wide and a mile deep.
Mark Lomanno
I love working with Hummingbird Commercial. The information is straightforward and easy to access and the data is well laid out.
Steve Pyles
Kalibri has been instrumental in identifying future opportunities and adjusting to faster-to-market trends. It gives us an advantage over our competition and has shown significant value.
Phil Bemiller
The service and information are great, to find information of where to focus on. Easy to use.
Margarita Garcia
From the national level right down to individual hotel sub-markets, Kalibri data is integral to a thorough analysis of extended-stay supply, demand, revenues and potential investment opportunity.
Mark Skinner
News & Insights
-
Hotel Investment Analysis: Using Market Data to Evaluate Opportunities Before Acquisition
“Location, location, location,” remains foundational in real estate, but in hotel investment analysis, it applies…
4 min read -
New AAHOA–Kalibri Partnership Puts Profitability at the Center of Hotel Operations
ATLANTA, GA, November 12, 2025 —In response to growing pressure on hotel profitability amid rising…
3 min read -
Inflation Proofing Your Hotel Budget
Rising costs, tariff-related pressures, and uneven demand patterns have put hoteliers in a challenging position…
3 min read