HB ON THE SCENE: Industry Outlook on 2019 is More of the Same

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BY CJ ARLOTTA 

LOS ANGELES—More than 3,000 delegates have gathered at this year’s Americas Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) to find out the future of the industry. For now, industry experts are expecting more of the same in 2019, but they’re not so certain about 2020. Panelists during the general session covered several trending topics, including where the industry is heading, brand standards and advocacy.

Key takeaways from the morning’s stats session (panelists included Cindy Estis Green, CEO/co-founder of Kalibri Labs; Vail S. Ross, SVP of STR; R. Mark Woodworth, senior managing director of CBRE Hotels; and Mark Wynne Smith, global CEO of hotels at JLL):

  • Highly liquid markets include Boston, Miami, San Diego and San Francisco.

  • Cap rates held steady in H2 2018 but are expected to trend up in 2019.

  • In 2019, supply is expected to increase by 1.9%; demand is forecast to increase by 1.9%; occupancy is projected to remain flat; RevPAR is forecast to increase by 2.3%; and ADR is expected to increase by 2.3%.

  • Hotel debt markets are expected to remain strong throughout 2019, but the ultimate trajectory of the market will remain closely tied to what happens in Washington, DC.

  • There’s a 40% chance of a recession in 2020.

  • In 2020, supply is expected to increase by 1.9%; demand is forecast to increase by 1.7%; occupancy is projected to decrease by 0.2%; RevPAR is forecast to increase by 1.9%; and ADR is expected to increase by 2.2.

  • Increased robotics can help labor shortage issues in the industry.

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